I am writing this for my foreign readers but also for those Americans who don't understand our Constitution. (I'm afraid there are far too many of them.) On Tuesday Americans go to the polls to elect our next President. It is possible that Mitt Romney will get more votes than President Obama and at the same time lose the election, all because of our odd little process, the Electoral College.
The first thing you must understand that the United States is not and never has been a democracy. We are a Republic. Each time we pledge allegiance to the flag we also pledge allegiance to "the republic for which it stands". Our funding fathers did not trust the masses, who were likely to become excitable rabble. (Think Tea Party.) They felt they must put another step between the election and the outcome.
The College consists of 538 electors, who are elected by the states. Each state is granted electors in a number equal to the members of Congress. Wyoming, with its low population, has only one member in the House of Representatives, but two senators, so it has three electors. There are 435 members of the house and 100 senators. Add to that three electors given to the District of Columbia and that gives us 538 electoral votes.
To win the Presidency, a candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes. Presently, polls show that Mitt Romney can count on 191 votes, whereas President Obama has between 259 and 277 votes. Most of the states are either in the Republican or Democratic column. The President never goes to places like Wyoming or Texas to campaign because there is absolutely no chance he will win those votes. Romney never campaigns in New York or California. There are ten states that could swing either way, most of them in the Midwest. At this point in the election, states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are pretty much going to the Democrats. There are currently six states to watch: New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado.
North Carolina's fifteen votes will almost certainly go to Romney, who now would have 206. Add Florida. Polls show Obama slightly ahead there, but Governor Perry has been doing his utmost to purge minorities from the voter rolls, GOP has been caught throwing out registration forms, the machines are known to be wonky, and just this week, some 1000 early votes were "lost", and to the surprise of no one, they were in African American neighborhoods. Add 29 to Romney's total and you get 235.
Colorado has 9 votes. It is trending toward Obama, but it turns out that Romney and his family own an interest in the voting machines and that is 244 votes.
New Hampshire will almost certainly go to Barack Obama and that leave Ohio. Mitt Romney cannot win the Electoral College without it. Polls show he is behind there, and most expectations are it will go to the President. However, just in Colorado, the Romney family owns an interest in the machines. Win it and Romney has 262, still not enough to win the election. He would also need Virginia's 13, bringing him to 275 and the Presidency.
President Obama has about five routes to win. Romney has only one and everything must fall into place.
If the election is honest, it is likely the President will have a second term, provided that all the electors vote the way they are supposed to, but some states give their electors the discretion to change their votes and that, too, could happen.
And it could be that Romney will win the popular vote and still lose. It has happened before, the last time in 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore.
Tomorrow: what if there is a tie?
The first thing you must understand that the United States is not and never has been a democracy. We are a Republic. Each time we pledge allegiance to the flag we also pledge allegiance to "the republic for which it stands". Our funding fathers did not trust the masses, who were likely to become excitable rabble. (Think Tea Party.) They felt they must put another step between the election and the outcome.
The College consists of 538 electors, who are elected by the states. Each state is granted electors in a number equal to the members of Congress. Wyoming, with its low population, has only one member in the House of Representatives, but two senators, so it has three electors. There are 435 members of the house and 100 senators. Add to that three electors given to the District of Columbia and that gives us 538 electoral votes.
To win the Presidency, a candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes. Presently, polls show that Mitt Romney can count on 191 votes, whereas President Obama has between 259 and 277 votes. Most of the states are either in the Republican or Democratic column. The President never goes to places like Wyoming or Texas to campaign because there is absolutely no chance he will win those votes. Romney never campaigns in New York or California. There are ten states that could swing either way, most of them in the Midwest. At this point in the election, states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are pretty much going to the Democrats. There are currently six states to watch: New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado.
North Carolina's fifteen votes will almost certainly go to Romney, who now would have 206. Add Florida. Polls show Obama slightly ahead there, but Governor Perry has been doing his utmost to purge minorities from the voter rolls, GOP has been caught throwing out registration forms, the machines are known to be wonky, and just this week, some 1000 early votes were "lost", and to the surprise of no one, they were in African American neighborhoods. Add 29 to Romney's total and you get 235.
Colorado has 9 votes. It is trending toward Obama, but it turns out that Romney and his family own an interest in the voting machines and that is 244 votes.
New Hampshire will almost certainly go to Barack Obama and that leave Ohio. Mitt Romney cannot win the Electoral College without it. Polls show he is behind there, and most expectations are it will go to the President. However, just in Colorado, the Romney family owns an interest in the machines. Win it and Romney has 262, still not enough to win the election. He would also need Virginia's 13, bringing him to 275 and the Presidency.
President Obama has about five routes to win. Romney has only one and everything must fall into place.
If the election is honest, it is likely the President will have a second term, provided that all the electors vote the way they are supposed to, but some states give their electors the discretion to change their votes and that, too, could happen.
And it could be that Romney will win the popular vote and still lose. It has happened before, the last time in 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore.
Tomorrow: what if there is a tie?
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